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What could happen to food production in the future?
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Biophysical effects of climate change on food production will be positive in some regions and negative in others, and these effects will vary through time. Socio-economic factors influencing food production include changes in population size, changes in food prices, changes in trade agreements and the possibility of adaptation. Scientists combine different mathematical models (climate, agricultural, and economic models) to predict the possible impacts of global climate change on regional food production. The figure shows the results obtained using the Hadley climate model for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 (for further explanation on how this model works, see the "read more" section). To interpret the maps we have to remember that the results obtained depend on climate, the effect of CO2 levels on crop growth and changes in socioeconomic conditions. For example, in developed countries lower rainfall levels can be overcome through irrigation but these technological solutions are not necessarily possible in less developed countries.
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The maps show that increased temperatures in many parts of Africa will reduce food production. The decrease in rainfall in Australia will reduce crop yields but this decline can be overcome by irrigation in some cases. The increase in rainfall combined with a moderate increase in temperatures in North America may benefit food production there. The maps show that the burden of climate change is likely to fall disproportionately on the poorer countries of the world.
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Factors influencing future food production:Scientists always stress that predicting the future is very difficult and its even more difficult to predict changes in food production than it is climate. Click on the pictures below to help you understand what factors have to be taken into account when we try to predict how climate change will affect food production. a) in developing countries |
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Image sources for the figure series: |
1. scientific reviewer: Alex de Sherbinin - CIESIN, Columbia University, USA 2. scientific reviewer: Lily Parshall - Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University, USA educational reviewer: Emilio Sternfeld - Colegio Virgen de Mirasierra - España last published: 2004-05-12 |