Food & Climate 

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Use of climate information for drought management and early warning systems

Those affected by extreme droughts have responded to them vigorously in most parts of the world, taking emergency measures, but so far the responses have focused on the effects of drought ex post, rather than on anticipatory measures ex ante.

In general, these efforts have neglected to build the capacity needed to deal with similar situations in the future. Information on possible longer-term climate forecasts and/or development of plausible scenarios has not yet been incorporated into any specific action plans.

Use of climate information

Water management is strongly concerned with the minimization of risks in agricultural production. Much of the risk is caused by the unpredictability of future weather patterns. The impacts vary between users and regions in the Mediterranean.

There has been remarkable progress in the science of climate and climate prediction in the last few decades. While this progress will continue, it is necessary to mainstream the climate variable into the development planning and implementation processes. This requires an understanding of how climate variability impacts on society in a country, region, or community.

The design of effective adaptation options of agriculture and water management under drought conditions requires evaluating and enhancing methods of communication of scientific information to stakeholders regarding climate, water use, food production, and social responses and interactions in the region.

Within this broad framework, key research questions include: Are current scientific information and methods effective for communicating with stakeholders?; and Are methods and strategies for drought management transferable across spatial scales and socio-economic systems?.

Drought early warning systems

Countries in general are unprepared to cope with drought in an effective way. Local and National policymakers typically react to a drought event through “crisis management” rather than through the formulation and implementation of anticipatory measures commonly referred to as “risk management”. A typical reason mentioned by decision makers for the lack of such risk management policies, has been the lack of means to predict climate conditions with sufficient skill and lead- time.

Major advances in understanding the Mediterranean climate have been made in recent years. Atmospheric scientists can now predict some of the medium-term (one or two seasons ahead) features of our climate with a reasonable level of skill. This provides specific opportunities for incorporation of forecast information into water management strategies, especially related to irrigation. The regional studies focus on optimising traditional production systems since they are the current basis of agricultural production in the Mediterranean, but the research also has benefits for large-scale commercial systems.

The appropriate adoption of mechanisms of communicating climate information and sectoral risk should permit regional planners to reduce the devastating effects of drought and the uncertain effects of climate and weather in the more favourable seasons. Integrated climate monitoring (incorporating the information about climate, soil, water supply, and potential yields) is an important element of adaptation strategies. Information should be in the public domain, sufficient to gauge the level of risk and make informed decisions about the future.

Author:  Marta Moneo and Ana Iglesias- Universidad Politécnica de Madrid - España
1. Scientific reviewer: Alex de Sherbinin - CIESIN, Columbia University - USA
2. Scientific reviewer: Lily Parshall - Goddard Institute for space studies, Columbia University - USA
Educational reviewer: Emilio Sternfeld - Colegio Virgen de Mirasierra - España
Last update: 12/05/2004