Explore a climate model

1) How has our planet Earth developed so far?

Test the interactive climate model and answer! Click on the illustrations of this page and enlarge them. It will help you to find the right settings for the model.

How did our planet Earth develop?

How did the CO₂ emissions develop in the past and how might the trend go on in the future. Look at the overview by region.

Consider that the grey shape of the future development is not "fixed" but depends on the “scenario” you choose. In the case shown, CO₂ stabilised at 500 ppm in 2100. Before you change this rather optimistic scenario, please see first how the world has developed so far and the consequences.

Choose the % view of the emissions by region (red arrow). It tells you how much each region in the world contributed relatively (see the absolute growth in figure 1) to the total of all emissions (100%) in the world.

Task 1: Estimate the contributions of: USA, Europe (West + East), Asia, South and Middle America and Africa in 1940 and 2000. Estimate where the trend will go.

Choose the "Emissions Regions Map" (yellow arrow). It shows you in different projections (view = blue arrow) the regions contributing to the scheme on the left.
 

Think over what you know about economy. The daily news tells you that all countries hope that it grows a few percent per year. An indicator of the monetary growth is the "gross domestic product" (GDP). See how it developed in the last 30 years and what the model assumes for the future. See also the relative share between industrialised countries and developing countries (in particular in Asia). 

Task 2: Describe what you see. Which regions in the world have the highest GDP and which is the biggest population in the world. Where are the trends going?
 

Make use of the "PER" button and choose CO₂ emissions per population. It will give you information on how much CO₂ in tons of carbon an average person in the respective region used up.

Task 3: Which factor had so far the stronger influence on CO2 emissions, GDP or population of a region?

Press the "KP" button, which stands for the targets of the Kyoto protocol.

Task 4: Write a short answer of 3 sentences: What is the problem for the United States? Why was it easier to agree on the Kyoto protocol for Russia?
 

You see that there are not targets for the developing countries, because they were excluded from the protocol. You see that their emissions per person are low.

Task 5: Give a short statement (3 sentences): If you look out to the future economical development, do you think developing countries need to be involved in future protocols for emission control? Why?