Explore a climate model

How will the climate develop?

Test the interactive climate model and answer. Click on the illustrations on this page and enlarge them. It will help you to find the right settings for the model.

So far we assumed that CO₂ will stabilise in the air at 500 ppm (at the moment, in 2006, we have 380 ppm). Is 500 ppm realistic? Now you can start to be a climate modeller. Choose, for example, the following setup: "Regional climate map" at the top left. Please note that the climate changes depend on the months of the year. You can press the "MO" button in order to let the months rotate. At the top right you can choose the atmospheric CO₂. The graph gives you information about the stabilisation level (here 500 ppm in 2125) and about the sources (fossil fuel, red; landuse change, orange) and sinks (ocean, blue; biosphere, green).
Choose the temperature plot bottom left and the emission per population plot bottom right.

You see now that the world will be on average 1.9 degrees warmer in 2100, but only if we go reduce CO₂ emissions immediately.
 

Task 6: 1.9 degrees warming is an average value. Describe: Which regions will become much warmer?

Since we still emit more and more CO₂ every year climate experts say already now that it will become hard to achieve the limit of 2°C warming, which is regarded as tolerable for the world. Now move the big black cross in the CO₂ emissions upwards, for example to 650 ppm and see what happens to our planet.

Task 7: What is the average warming now? Which regions are most affected?
 

Before you start playing now with other options like precipitation, maximum temperatures and many other tools you have in the regional climate map (button “data”), we need to speak about IPCC scenarios.
We do not know exactly about economical development, usage of energy, cooperation between countries and population growth.
In this model we assumed that the usage of energy resources is relatively balanced. We call the scenario SRES “A1B”. We can also assume that it takes longer until developing countries turn to more modern energy resources and that the world develops more heterogeneously with strong regional differences. For this a new computer model with new assumptions is necessary. Please choose for this SRES “A2”. Values as 650 ppm or higher are more reasonable for this scenario, when emissions remain high for a longer time and decrease later.

Task 8: Press reset and choose the distribution of energy usage and the gross national product (GDP). Now choose with the “SRES” button in the upper menu bar different SRES scenarios. Describe the correlation between the three different scenarios and the assumed energy consumption. (4 sentences)