Food & Climate 

Basics

What may happen to food production in the future?

Food production in the future will be affected by changes in biophysical conditions (temperature, precipitation and CO₂, as mentioned before) and changes in socio-economic factors such as population to be supplied with food, exchange of products between different countries in the world or technological advances.

Biophysical effects of climate change on food production will be positive in some regions, and negative in others, and these effects will vary through time. Socio-economic factors that influence food production are changes in number of people that have to be fed, changes in prices, changes in trade, and possibility of adaptation.

Scientists combine different mathematical models (climate, agricultural, and economic models) to project impacts of global change on regional food production. The figure shows the results using the Hadley climate scenario (for further explanation on how this models work, see the "read more" section) for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The maps have to be interpreted remembering that the results depend on: climate, CO₂ effects on the crop, and changes in socioeconomic conditions and technical improvements. For example in more developed countries, lower rainfall can be compensated by developing irrigation systems, while this is not possible in less developed countries.

As shown in the maps, the increased temperatures in many parts of Africa will certainly decrease food production. The reduction of precipitation in Australia will also be negative for crops that can be compensated in some cases by irrigation. The increase in precipitation combined with a moderate increase in temperatures in North America may benefit food production in that region. The maps show that the burden of climate change may fall disproportionately in the poorer countries.

Factors influencing future food production:

Scientists always stress, that predicting the future is very difficult, for the food production even more than for climate change. Click on the thumbnails below in order to understand what factors have to be taken into account and how the situation can differ

a) in developing countries

b) in the developed industrialised world

1. Demography - How will the population on our planet develop? How many people have to be fed? Compare the numbers and projections for two industrialised and two developing countries [source: US census]
2. Technical state - are engeneering know-how, financial backing and technical equipement available to work on measures mitigating the impacts of climate changes? Compare countries, where people get the water from public foutains to modern drip irrigation using carefully each drop of water!
3. Infrastructure - Which means are available to overcome local or regional scarcity of food. Compare e.g. the transportation sector.
4. Trade - How fair is trade, if you compare what producers, traders and sellers earn in the trading chain. See the extreme example of the development of the coffee price in 2003 over several steps. 14 US cents is what the coffee farmer gets for the 2kg 'Koboko' (coffee cherries) ending up in 1 kg of green coffee beans. 
5. Markets - How do markets develop and how sensible are they if temporal scarcity of certain goods occurs due to floods or droughts? Think about, what food comes from where to a local market in Niger and to a big grocery store in California.

Image sources for the figure series:
1. data from US census population statistic, graph by Elmar Uherek
2., 3., 5. images from or near Agadez / Niger by Peter Hilty
2. drop irrigation by Alison Clayson for UNESCO
4. data from Oxfam 2003, graph by Elmar Uherek
5. image grocery story by Denise Daughtry

Author:  Marta Moneo and Ana Iglesias- Universidad Politécnica de Madrid - España
1. Scientific reviewer: Alex de Sherbinin - CIESIN, Columbia University - USA
2. Scientific reviewer: Lily Parshall - Goddard Institute for space studies, Columbia University - USA
Educational reviewer: Emilio Sternfeld - Colegio Virgen de Mirasierra - España
Last update: 12/05/2004