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1. Results of models showing possible crop yields in the future. Source Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 2002.
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Biophysical effects of climate change on food production will be positive in some regions and negative in others, and these effects will vary through time.
Socio-economic factors influencing food production include changes in population size, changes in food prices, changes in trade agreements and the possibility of adaptation.
Scientists combine different mathematical models (climate, agricultural, and economic models) to predict the possible impacts of global climate change on regional food production. The figure shows the results obtained using the Hadley climate model for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 (for further explanation on how this model works, see the "read more" section).
To interpret the maps we have to remember that the results obtained depend on climate, the effect of CO2 levels on crop growth and changes in socioeconomic conditions. For example, in developed countries lower rainfall levels can be overcome through irrigation but these technological solutions are not necessarily possible in less developed countries.
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