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Storms of magnitude, never witnessed before, devastate Los Angeles ...

Are we heading for a stormy future?

The damage caused by storms has been increasing dramatically in the US during the recent decades. Insurance companies have had to pay more and more money. In Europe a few years ago, severe storms cracked the trees like matches in the black forest and in Switzerland. Are we heading into the era of storms? But, be careful when interpreting statistics! In fact, the frequency of storms, for example, in the US, has slightly decreased. Also, their intensities have not increased.

In general, it is likely that the damage has been increasing, because more inhabited areas were involved, or the values have become higher and more people have entered into an insurance policy, all of these factors result in a statistically higher amount of loss. Not everything that seems to indicate climate change is occurring really does, if we have a closer look.

How do we find out? An international organisation consisting of scientists and governmental representatives from all over the world is called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They collect the results from global weather and climate observations and look at the patterns. The most recent report of the IPCC from 2001 states that there is no clear trend in storm events so far. But for the future, climate models predict that the warming atmosphere favours the development of storms. Taking into account that the sea level will also rise, the danger of storm surges will also increase.

In particular the hurricane season 2005 turned out to be one of the most severe ever observed with major destructions by “Katrina” in and around New Orleans and “Wilma” in and around Cancun. Read more about it and the likelihood of further strong storm seasons in the ACCENT Global Change Magazine edition  Tropical Cyclones.

'The Day After Tomorrow' presents even more tales from climate research ...

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