Food & Climate 

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Case studies in developing countries

The case study of Egypt

Background: Agriculture in Egypt is restricted to the fertile lands of the narrow Nile valley from Aswan to Cairo and the flat Nile Delta north of Cairo. Together this comprises only 3 per cent of the country’s land area. Egypt’s entire agricultural water supply comes from irrigation, solely from the Nile River. In 1990, agriculture (crops and livestock) accounted for 17 per cent of Egypt’s gross domestic product.

Problem: The water available for irrigation varies due to changes in freshwater availability and to competition among water users. Crop prices and markets also fluctuate. The aim is to examine the combined effects of water availability conditions and markets on the adaptability of the agricultural system.

Methods: A physically-based water balance model of the Nile Basin can be used to evaluate river runoff and thus enable inferences to be drawn concerning water supply for agriculture. Process-based agronomic models can be used to estimate crop yields and crop water requirements. Farm based decision support systems can be used to test relative economic advantages of changes in management options.

Scenarios: Climate is not the only factor that varies form year to year. Population dynamics and changing economic and technological conditions are likely to affect agriculture even more than changes in climate. It is important to take such changes into account in scenario impact analyses. However, predicting population dynamics and economic conditions is equally if not more uncertain than predicting climate. Therefore scenarios need to be designed carefully to address a range of possible conditions. A useful approach is to contrast "optimistic" and "pessimistic" views. A scenario of no change (i.e., present conditions) should also be included. The differential effects of climate management change on current conditions, and on these two alternative scenarios may then be evaluated.

Impacts: An agricultural water productivity index was used to measure impacts on agriculture: total agricultural production (tonnes) divided by total agricultural water use (cubic metres). Under the future scenarios the index declined between 13 and 45 percent in the optimistic and pessimistic scenario respectively.

2. Irrigation alternatives

Possible adaptation measures for irrigation systems in Egypt. Still many crops such as citrics and other fruits are irrigated by just letting water come in the fields and infiltrate in soils, in these pictures you can see what is called "localized irrigation", which only drops water close to the plant and only in a certain amount.

Adaptive responses: Adaptations in water resources (major river diversion schemes), irrigation (improved water delivery systems), agriculture (altered crop varieties and crop management) and coastal protection against sea-level rise were all tested. They achieve a modest 7-8 per cent increase in agricultural sector performance compared to no adaptation, but together would be extremely expensive to implement. However, investment in improving irrigation efficiency appears to be a robust, ‘no regrets’ policy that would be beneficial whether or not the climate changes.

Author:  Marta Moneo and Ana Iglesias- Universidad Politécnica de Madrid - España
1. Scientific reviewer: Alex de Sherbinin - CIESIN, Columbia University - USA
2. Scientific reviewer: Lily Parshall - Goddard Institute for space studies, Columbia University - USA
Educational reviewer: Emilio Sternfeld - Colegio Virgen de Mirasierra - España
Last update: 12/05/2004