How are
people changing
the climate?

Basics

2. What will
a warmer world be like?

Consequences for people

Climate changes will affect people’s lives. Poor people will be hardest hit.

The poor are the hardest hit

If climate change does not happen too quickly, it may actually have a positive effect on the economy and society in some parts of the world. For example, a warmer climate can improve crop yields in Northern Europe. In other areas, climate change can lead to drought and starvation. Thus a new climate will generate both winners and losers. The IPCC has assessed the likely impacts of climate change in various regions of the world and concludes that the losers will far outnumber the winners.
  

In the examples of the flood in Europe and the drought in India, we saw that the populations in both places were hard hit. Even though the impacts of the weather events in these two areas were entirely different, they both had serious consequences for society and human life.

But is it fair to say that they were equally hard hit?

Impoverished peasants in India depend on crops to avoid starvation and to survive, and since they are poor, they have little opportunity to modify their farming practices so they can be prepared for future years with drought. In contrast, the floods in Central Europe are hardly likely to make people permanently homeless or cause them to starve. This is partly because the states they life in have systems to help those affected – and more money to adapt the roads and construction to a changed climate.

It is clear that the poor countries will, by all accounts, be the hardest hit by climate change. Richer, industrialized countries will also face serious and unfortunate impacts, but they are in a completely different position to adapt to the changes and mitigate the damages. Thus climate change can exacerbate the problems associated with poverty and increase the gap between the Earth’s rich and poor countries.

• Read about the impacts of climate change in various places in the world
• Read more about who is vulnerable to climate change
  

What about business and the economy?

Climate change, as we can see from the examples above, will affect population settlements, agriculture, businesses, and the economy. One industry that is highly dependent on the climate is tourism. Climate change will force the tourist and travel industry to prepare for changing conditions:

• Many traditional winter destinations may receive rain rather than snow. Perhaps winter tourism in areas such as the Alps and Scandinavia may move to other areas with more reliable snowfall? 
   
• Southern Europe will be hotter and get less rain, making it subject to heat waves and drought (as was the case in summer 2003). Perhaps summer tourism in Southern Europe will dwindle because it becomes too dry and hot?
  

Another industry that is particularly dependent on the climate is agriculture. (Choose the topic Food & Climate if you want to read more about the impacts on agriculture.)

And what about human health?

Climate change also affects human health. Heat waves that occur more frequently and are more intense will lead to more frequent heat stroke and deaths among elderly and sick people. Several thousand people are reported to have died in France as a result of the intense heat wave in summer 2003. In areas that receive more frequent and more powerful extreme weather, the storms and intense precipitation events will take more human lives. At the same time, the milder winters will mean that fewer people will freeze to death.

A warmer climate is also more favorable to the spread of diseases that are transferred by mosquito, mites, ticks, snails, crustaceans, and other animals. Disease organisms include viruses, bacteria, fungi, and various parasitic worms. Dengue fever, yellow fever, malaria, and schistosomiasis (bilharzia) are examples of such diseases. While the first three are spread by mosquito, the last is spread by a freshwater snail.
 

Today, malaria is especially prevalent in Africa. The disease kills between one and three million people every year, and most victims are children. In addition to climate conditions, poverty is an important factor for the spread of malaria: Rich countries are generally able to exterminate malaria-bearing mosquitoes, even where the climate is favorable to them.

This is the last page in the Unit. Go to the worksheets.

Author: Camilla Schreiner - CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo) - Norway. Scientific reviewers: Andreas Tjernshaugen - CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo) - Norway - 2004-01-20 and Knut Alfsen - Statistics Norway - Norway - 2003-09-12. Educational reviewer: Nina Arnesen - Marienlyst school in Oslo - Norway - 2004-03-10. Last update: 2004-03-27.