espere ACCENT online magazine
Printer friendly version of this page
Home    ACCENT Educ.    Science    Encyclopaedia    es    ru    fr    de    it    cn   
Climate Change classes 1
UQ 3 May 07 Cars and ozone
UQ 2 Mar 07 Urban air
Climate change 2007 IPCC special
UQ 1 Nov Dec 06 Particles in air
Special: Oct. 2006 Communication
Nr 10 Sept. 2006 Africa's emissions
Nr 9 July 06 Air traffic
Special: June 06 Climate summit
Nr 8 April 2006 Ozone & N2 cycle
Nr 7 March 2006 Climate modeling
R: Global climate estimation
C: How climate models work
C: Simple models
A: Activities
How did the Earth develop?
How will the climate develop?
What can we do?
L: Links
I: Information for teachers
Nr 6 Feb. 2006 acid rain
Nr 5 Jan. 2006 oceanic sulfur
Special: Nov 05 Ozzy Ozone
Nr 4 Oct. 2005 light/satellites
Special: Sept 05 Cyclones
Nr 3 Sept. 2005 methane/energy
Special: July 05 Greenhouse Earth
Nr 2 June 2005 forest/aerosols
No 1 May 2005 vegetation/CO2

Explore a climate model

How will the climate develop?

Test the interactive climate model and answer. Click on the illustrations on this page and enlarge them. It will help you to find the right settings for the model.


So far we assumed that CO2 will stabilise in the air at 500 ppm (at the moment, in 2006, we have 380 ppm). Is 500 ppm realistic? Now you can start to be a climate modeller. Choose, for example, the following setup: "Regional climate map" at the top left. Please note that the climate changes depend on the months of the year. You can press the "MO" button in order to let the months rotate. At the top right you can choose the atmospheric CO2. The graph gives you information about the stabilisation level (here 500 ppm in 2125) and about the sources (fossil fuel, red; landuse change, orange) and sinks (ocean, blue; biosphere, green).
Choose the temperature plot bottom left and the emission per population plot bottom right.

You see now that the world will be on average 1.9 degrees warmer in 2100, but only if we go reduce CO2 emissions immediately.

scenario A1B 500 ppm

Task 6: 1.9 degrees warming is an average value. Describe: Which regions will become much warmer?

Since we still emit more and more CO2 every year climate experts say already now that it will become hard to achieve the limit of 2°C warming, which is regarded as tolerable for the world. Now move the big black cross in the CO2 emissions upwards, for example to 650 ppm and see what happens to our planet.

Task 7: What is the average warming now? Which regions are most affected?

Scenario A1B 650 ppm

Before you start playing now with other options like precipitation, maximum temperatures and many other tools you have in the regional climate map (button “data”), we need to speak about IPCC scenarios.
We do not know exactly about economical development, usage of energy, cooperation between countries and population growth.
In this model we assumed that the usage of energy resources is relatively balanced. We call the scenario SRES “A1B”. We can also assume that it takes longer until developing countries turn to more modern energy resources and that the world develops more heterogeneously with strong regional differences. For this a new computer model with new assumptions is necessary. Please choose for this SRES “A2”. Values as 650 ppm or higher are more reasonable for this scenario, when emissions remain high for a longer time and decrease later.

Task 8: Press reset and choose the distribution of energy usage and the gross national product (GDP). Now choose with the “SRES” button in the upper menu bar different SRES scenarios. Describe the correlation between the three different scenarios and the assumed energy consumption. (4 sentences)


Scenario variation



last updated 13.04.2006 | © ACCENT - Atmospheric Composition Change 2013