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1. Results of modelling for crop yields in the future. Source Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 2002
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Biophysical effects of climate change on food production will be positive in some regions, and negative in others, and these effects will vary through time. Socio-economic factors that influence food production are changes in number of people that have to be fed, changes in prices, changes in trade, and possibility of adaptation.
Scientists combine different mathematical models (climate, agricultural, and economic models) to project impacts of global change on regional food production. The figure shows the results using the Hadley climate scenario (for further explanation on how this models work, see the "read more" section) for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080.
The maps have to be interpreted remembering that the results depend on: climate, CO2 effects on the crop, and changes in socioeconomic conditions and technical improvements. For example in more developed countries, lower rainfall can be compensated by developing irrigation systems, while this is not possible in less developed countries. |